NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82998951ca46f347d84e16825cb9c9d1731623776e78665db039337b388b06a3

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Celtics, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $211,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $211,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,711 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Celtics	50c	112,304$55,716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55,715.6	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Jazz	51c	50,000$25,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,500	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Jazz	50c	45,981$22,990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,990.28	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Jazz	48c	25,000$12,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,000	62	53.2%33 W · 29 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Jazz	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,000	382	48.7%186 W · 196 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Jazz	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,000	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics	52c	17,654$9,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,179.89	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics	50c	16,969$8,554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,554.19	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Celtics	50c	15,128$7,495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,494.76	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Jazz	50c	14,471$7,235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,235.36	148	56.1%83 W · 65 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Celtics	50c	11,217$5,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,608.25	192	49.5%95 W · 97 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Jazz	49c	6,888$3,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,513.12	96	50%48 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Jazz	51c	6,510$3,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,190.13	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Celtics	50c	5,500$2,744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,743.75	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Jazz	50c	4,800$2,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,400	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Celtics	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,960	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Celtics	50c	3,700$1,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,850	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-5.7wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Celtics	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	176	37.5%66 W · 110 L	-16.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Celtics	49c	1,777$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.35	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Celtics	47c	1,607$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$755.38	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4f…b4b5backed Jazz	50c	1,400$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$700	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Celtics	50c	995.7$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.85	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x527c…5f6cbacked Celtics	52c	957.76$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.04	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942c…fb3abacked Celtics	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…3582backed Jazz	51c	784.31$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.31	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8354…b291backed Celtics	50c	784$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Celtics	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Celtics	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	381	51.2%195 W · 186 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Celtics	52c	498$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.96	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x669c…6c54backed Jazz	51c	490.2$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.2	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf57…6dffbacked Celtics	50c	490$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Jazz	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…ed90backed Celtics	50c	396.08$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-5.7wins	-0.20per pick	47cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Celtics	50c	387$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.03	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Jazz	51c	328$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.93	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Celtics	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7543…bf2bbacked Celtics	76c	283.52$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.43per pick	68cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Celtics	47c	250$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.5	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Celtics	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf36f…fb15backed Jazz	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55f7…23a3backed Celtics	51c	199.25$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.62	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics	49c	167$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.83	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Celtics	49c	150$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics	49c	124$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.76	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Jazz	51c	122$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.78	958	48.7%467 W · 491 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae72…f49dbacked Celtics	50c	118.82$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Jazz	42c	117$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.86	141	39%55 W · 86 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Jazz	50c	111$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.5	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Celtics	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-8.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Celtics	53c	98.8$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.36	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ca…2c36backed Jazz	52c	90.38$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.38	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9d…b033backed Celtics	50c	79.22$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.22	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Celtics	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	51c	59$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.91	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Celtics	56c	53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde0…c132backed Celtics	51c	50.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Jazz	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…5822backed Jazz	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Celtics	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Jazz	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	-9.3wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81c8…97b8backed Celtics	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Celtics	51c	48.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.65	346	44.2%153 W · 193 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz	49c	48.33$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.65	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9bc…45c3backed Jazz	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Celtics	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	112	51.8%58 W · 54 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Celtics	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe714…c180backed Jazz	52c	34.62$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.62	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe74e…90b6backed Jazz	50c	29.6$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.8	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc538…484abacked Jazz	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed Celtics	50c	23.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9b…ae51backed Jazz	50c	21.8$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.9	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7028…8512backed Jazz	50c	20.4$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc264…eb32backed Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f15…4ea4backed Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e4…5384backed Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28d7…d530backed Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.35per pick	49cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5470…f84ebacked Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17a3…8dadbacked Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-6.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2337…3a2cbacked Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe834…6407backed Celtics	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Celtics (-10.5)this page
Jazz vs. CelticsJazz won
Jazz vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
Jazz vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Jazz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Celtics (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event