MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2474adba00538754f21e19285391985a3683b662ead5f6a29445ca21a2c5eb13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc1…b33cbacked Under | 61c | 4,444$2,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.16 | 262 | 57.3%150 W · 112 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 3,880$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.18 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 10c | 1,561$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.31 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 7c | 1,461$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 1,405$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.42 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 30c | 1,320$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.78 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 48c | 810.77$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.6 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 49c | 715$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.65 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 7c | 627.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 493.69$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 10c | 471.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 355.48$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 46c | 326.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 67c | 299.38$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 48c | 249.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 239.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 27c | 236$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 49c | 213.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 7c | 203.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 38c | 198$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 52c | 193.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 149.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 129$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 126.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 48c | 121.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 11c | 117.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 30c | 100.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 74c | 91.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 19c | 78.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 22c | 64.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 60.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 59c | 53.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 51c | 39.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 36c | 36.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 304 | 50.7%154 W · 150 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 41c | 29.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 71c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 25.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 53c | 25.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Under | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.