MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24aeb6c22b885b1b1ecf77b4db19c54a8241437c9d97801bca99242f188a077e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 4,061$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 2,783$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 14c | 1,792$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 52c | 1,750$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.5 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,530$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.7 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 17c | 1,232$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,185$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Under | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 992.11$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 922$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.56 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 768.49$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 25c | 749.11$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.07 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 64c | 711.17$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.17 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 674.18$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.81 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 42c | 595.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 594.37$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 18c | 563.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Under | 54c | 427.56$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 303.69$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 46c | 301.88$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 281.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 41c | 249.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 67c | 239.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 45c | 236.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 44c | 221.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 46c | 210.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 202.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 54c | 189.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 53c | 187.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 45c | 176.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 50c | 166.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 61c | 130.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 53c | 119.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 45c | 112.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 58c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…93a5backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 99.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Over | 41c | 94.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +140.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Under | 54c | 93.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 40c | 89.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 80.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 40c | 79.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 51c | 76.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 54c | 69.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 21c | 68.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 49c | 67.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 43c | 60.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Over | 38c | 52.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 48.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 46.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 61c | 45.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 55c | 44.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 66c | 40.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Over | 42c | 33.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.