Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25089b3fcfae6470fc43e82ac9835b204c50e0d00fdcfe2968c3a9cc0808f10a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,448$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,743$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,731$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 1,216$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…ffbebacked Yes | 15c | 1,192$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 977.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 20c | 750.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 642.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 5c | 564.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 10c | 551.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…3cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 505.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 461.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…bed9backed Yes | 10c | 332.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 14c | 311$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 295.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…5391backed Yes | 12c | 267.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 246.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 8c | 235.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 228.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…b2adbacked Yes | 24c | 189.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 174.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 155.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 26c | 154.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 16c | 154.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Yes | 10c | 143.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…588dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab94…6a3fbacked Yes | 24c | 129.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 16c | 123.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 115.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 10c | 111.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 13c | 107.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 22c | 105.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 19c | 102$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b81…cdc0backed Yes | 15c | 100.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 22c | 94.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…f553backed Yes | 23c | 93.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 31c | 93.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 90.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…ae82backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 74c | 74.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 18c | 71.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 77c | 69.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6a…a8d1backed Yes | 23c | 63.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 73c | 61.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 30c | 59.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392e…1fbdbacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 20c | 52.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 24c | 46.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed No | 74c | 45.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…0d95backed Yes | 27c | 44.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 77c | 35.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 71c | 28.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…64dabacked No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…a8b5backed No | 68c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.