Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fae4299f8d0e3849f68642298197bab89f1794f9ec504ffb0bcbb7275bba510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 0c | 4,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 15c | 2,352$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 2,261$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 46c | 2,018$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,400$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 31c | 748.21$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed No | 56c | 378.64$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 26c | 355.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.03 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 36c | 336.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…2b8ebacked No | 32c | 309.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 284.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 269.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 265$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 27c | 230.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.45 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 21c | 230$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 229.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 7c | 229$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 27c | 218.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.23 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 216.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 50c | 212.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 21c | 210.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.92 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 198$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 51c | 176.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 163.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 9c | 152.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 32c | 148.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 139.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 138.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 137.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa006…a7dabacked Yes | 66c | 137.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 136.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 26c | 132.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 23c | 130.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 128.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 125.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 117.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 66c | 112.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 110.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 34c | 102.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 99.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 93.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 50c | 85.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 82.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 80.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 50c | 79.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 79.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 78.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 73c | 77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 76.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 75.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 74.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 14c | 74.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 34c | 73.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes | 28c | 73.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 69.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 68.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 34c | 66.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 65.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 65.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 64c | 64.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 52c | 62.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 54.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 52.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 29c | 51.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 45c | 50.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 49.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 48.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 41.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 54c | 40.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 38.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 50c | 33.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 65c | 32.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 32c | 32.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 30.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…264fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 59c | 29.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 25.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked Yes | 47c | 24.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 53c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 57c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.