Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a522ade69d06e596acec2e0b76b633dec6f24c5002f3bbe882b2b3100630903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 3,044$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,148$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.8 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 70c | 999.97$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 80c | 955.49$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 548.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 5c | 491.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 22c | 472.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 332.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 19c | 299.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 284.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 265$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 19c | 254.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 253.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 221.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 215.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 179.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 25c | 167.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 29c | 167.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 163.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 147.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 138.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 133.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 16c | 128.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 114.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 78c | 112.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 18c | 108.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 97.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 88.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 30c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 79c | 73.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 71.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 70.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 68.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 65.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…31c5backed Yes | 26c | 57.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 50.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 48.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 43.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 39c | 28.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 22.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…df5abacked No | 75c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 76c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.