Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb3b7effa5813ee81a8a9cb9e47a9fc8317efa068af4041d600deac35d561948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,964$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.02 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,134$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.83 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 23c | 1,099$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…ffbebacked Yes | 35c | 1,048$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 922.26$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 749.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…3cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 704.27$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 555.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 4c | 444.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 374.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 19c | 325.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 299.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 265$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 261.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 260.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 19c | 256.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 240.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 28c | 208.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 69c | 199.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 188.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 181.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 66c | 176.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 171.05$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 170.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 62c | 160.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…5391backed Yes | 27c | 154.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 147.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…588dbacked Yes | 34c | 145.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…bed9backed Yes | 28c | 144.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 127.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 25c | 121.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 118.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 20c | 116.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 109.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 109.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 35c | 108.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 107.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 25c | 106.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 104.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 104.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 102.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…f053backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce28…0b58backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 98.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab94…6a3fbacked Yes | 31c | 97.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 90.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 75c | 88.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 25c | 85.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 61c | 84.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 79.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 75c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 32c | 77.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d9a9backed Yes | 28c | 72.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 69.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 28c | 66.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 76c | 59.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 56.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…90f4backed Yes | 22c | 55.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 32c | 54.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 33c | 52.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 25c | 51.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 77c | 51.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 49.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 36c | 46.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 34c | 46.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a07…69c5backed Yes | 22c | 46.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 37.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e5…efbbbacked Yes | 29c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…7a85backed Yes | 29c | 34.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 77c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 71c | 33.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 31.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked No | 70c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 65c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.