Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25199badb200405276d54dbdbe4a919bdd6a2bceb393feb3c8588a1a1ed79dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 41c | 6,113$2,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.86 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed No | 3c | 4,423$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 57c | 4,184$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.79 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,332$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,252$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…2bdcbacked No | 5c | 1,122$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed Yes | 64c | 975$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 36c | 883.62$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.4 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 63c | 619.88$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.83 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 19c | 531.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.71 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 71c | 514.73$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.54 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 38c | 482$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 379.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 79c | 298.53$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 295.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 248.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 55c | 234.05$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccfb…b83cbacked Yes | 56c | 177.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 71c | 142.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 127.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 72c | 83.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 73c | 80.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 74c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 66c | 75.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 23c | 73.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 35c | 56.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 71c | 43.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 46c | 41.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…de1abacked Yes | 63c | 30.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 41m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.