MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2554d07528c53ced8b56a7afbf4eaf26704025955866a76a2ac67c74180e9230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 23,688$8,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,108.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 14,662$10,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,491.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 3,885$2,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.19 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,302$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 1,157$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.02 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 970.69$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 58c | 897.5$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.86 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 676.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.01 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 636.98$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Under | 53c | 588.38$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.5 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 552.54$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 65c | 459.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.92 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 34c | 341.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.55 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 59c | 335.05$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.37 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 268.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 55c | 224.34$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 52c | 198.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 66c | 177$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 104.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 66c | 101.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Over | 66c | 101.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 95.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 63c | 95.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 51c | 88.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 62c | 86.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 35c | 83.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 82.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 62c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 63c | 73.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 68c | 67.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 60c | 56.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 26c | 56.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 34c | 45.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Under | 60c | 39.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Under | 61c | 38.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 38.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 62c | 37.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Under | 63c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 63c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Under | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b1…8b43backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 54c | 22.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 55c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Under | 61c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.