MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73965ec1ce2bedc11cfe527c371d892bf6e8a4810eb4e5c54a1ceaeb4706112a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 7,573$4,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 5,436$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 3,292$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 2,593$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 40c | 1,929$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.86 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 1,922$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.72 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 64c | 1,200$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.12 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 37c | 810$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 57c | 805.43$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.1 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 60c | 787$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 40c | 768$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.35 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 699.5$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.84 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 682.4$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.35 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 579.52$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Under | 64c | 551.88$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.7 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 42c | 454.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 57c | 439.12$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 30c | 342.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 306.04$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Over | 50c | 293.92$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Under | 43c | 224.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.18 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 67c | 222.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 35c | 171.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 61c | 164$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 69c | 145.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 22c | 111.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 29c | 111.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 42c | 97.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 88.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 40c | 86.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 43c | 83.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 65c | 81.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…7c0cbacked Under | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 42c | 62.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 26c | 59.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 49c | 50.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 41c | 48.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Over | 23c | 43.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 35c | 43.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 35c | 42.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 35c | 42.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 29c | 41.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 65c | 39.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 31c | 32.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 72c | 31.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Over | 60c | 26.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Over | 60c | 24.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 67c | 18.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 76c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 74c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.