MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1bb291ff77976c8302761b08f140d567bc5f9429e5911b8a8b3d9c95a7c3e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 7,179$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 5,887$3,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,145.58 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 2,882$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 1,770$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 1,509$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.95 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 1,321$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 1,200$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 875.64$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 754.85$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 714.71$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.05 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 633$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 612.58$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 423$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 366.88$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.81 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 327.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 327.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 322.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 296.22$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 264.53$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 253.08$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 208.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 193.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 145$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 143.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 138.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 122$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 108.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 104.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 102.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 97.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 92.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 86.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 76.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 74.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 66.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 57.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 50.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 49.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 49.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 49.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 37.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 34.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 33.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…891bbacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.