Us Politics · resolved market
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x256d2b343331c7f69f17abcefd00c48348b6003eca80edb2a427141377c41946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 0c | 11,588$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,460$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.45 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 2,884$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.43 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…0e53backed No | 79c | 682.47$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 75cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 26c | 417.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 79c | 366.29$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 60c | 255.19$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…945fbacked Yes | 72c | 212.38$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 44c | 203.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed No | 79c | 183.17$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 78c | 164.84$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…19a3backed No | 74c | 147.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…218ebacked No | 31c | 147.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 73c | 147$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 70c | 143.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…531fbacked No | 74c | 125.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…c116backed Yes | 11c | 117.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 90.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 26c | 88.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 42c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked No | 28c | 73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…9ef8backed No | 73c | 62.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…fef9backed No | 79c | 26.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.