NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x256e6dfdc932f5e9eab08dd9f2cb9a05d980bf3371b5208a29431aa75fbdca5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under | 50c | 1,167$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.5 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 946.73$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.11 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Under | 60c | 840$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 779.21$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 39c | 779.1$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 58c | 738.09$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 571.22$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.61 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 58c | 557.26$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.96 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 335.65$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 59c | 247.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 27c | 232$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 38c | 223.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 41c | 166.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 63c | 124$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 54c | 104.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 96.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Over | 53c | 93.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x220e…3b20backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 69.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 39c | 64.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 46c | 50.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 51c | 50.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 53c | 49.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Over | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 40c | 46.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Over | 56c | 46.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -10.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Over | 42c | 36.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 32.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 40c | 29.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe236…cfcdbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 22.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 78c | 22.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 54c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Nets won
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Nets won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Egor Demin: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nets vs. HawksHawks won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.