TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Nets, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,039,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,189,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,039,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 843 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Nets22c681,818$150,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149,999.8943542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Hawks78c385,487$299,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,062.621,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets22c278,734$61,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,321.4987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed Hawks45c116,435$52,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,634.533271.9%23 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks78c96,487$75,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,175.474,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Hawks78c79,000$61,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,38060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x183d…1270backed Nets29c61,302$17,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,684.934619.6%9 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Hawks78c39,650$30,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,7231,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Hawks79c32,986$25,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,017.091,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Nets63c31,244$19,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,769.871,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Hawks78c29,144$22,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,457.096657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Hawks78c27,247$21,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,994.4426949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7671…7244backed Hawks80c25,039$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,039.391361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Hawks78c23,250$18,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,11528554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Hawks78c21,912$17,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,820.6811443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Hawks77c21,411$16,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.521549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Nets20c20,952$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.4727424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Nets22c20,767$4,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,521.4314738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Hawks49c19,978$9,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,133.2211452.6%60 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets35c19,074$6,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,586.068,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Nets23c18,644$4,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,235.9320947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Hawks78c13,859$10,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.9717356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Hawks78c13,599$10,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,991.7923257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Hawks78c13,397$10,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.4413063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets59c13,248$7,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,755.13,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed Hawks78c12,977$10,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.0214450.7%73 W · 71 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Nets25c12,536$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100.685139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ea…6e4ebacked Hawks78c12,415$9,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,731.3316146%74 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…d5f4backed Hawks78c11,662$9,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Hawks78c11,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.9587750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Hawks78c10,616$8,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.2920849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Nets21c10,378$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.3319751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Hawks79c10,000$7,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,15018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Nets20c10,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.9935450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hawks77c9,719$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,218.612,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks78c9,352$7,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.671,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks70c9,061$6,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.464,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks70c8,426$5,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.712,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks71c8,141$5,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,398.643,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nets55c7,976$4,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,363.571,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks78c7,939$6,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.862,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c4…4e39backed Hawks78c7,741$6,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Nets22c6,779$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.3851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2575…bf1ebacked Nets27c6,777$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.118530.6%26 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Hawks78c6,500$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4308052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Nets22c6,500$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.9313249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Hawks78c6,411$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.4231445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hawks78c6,410$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.261,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04e…376abacked Hawks78c6,121$4,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.511643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nets48c5,707$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.971,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Nets3c5,185$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.543520%7 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Nets29c5,163$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.1346940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nets23c5,050$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets44c5,021$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.233,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd052…058dbacked Hawks77c5,005$3,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Nets23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15026640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Hawks78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Nets23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15024549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Hawks79c4,900$3,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.2130157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Nets7c4,603$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.885813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Hawks78c4,439$3,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.5841832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Hawks77c4,430$3,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.9619958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Nets4c4,293$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7214663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Hawks74c4,054$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.1914254.9%78 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Nets28c4,049$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.6138540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Hawks78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Hawks78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Hawks78c3,846$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.1556453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks78c3,836$2,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.319,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Hawks78c3,732$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.0924744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Nets24c3,655$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.4716440.9%67 W · 97 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Nets20c3,577$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.081,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Hawks77c3,547$2,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.8319653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Hawks68c3,500$2,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.167252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Nets20c3,439$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.7737539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Nets22c3,400$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.5286641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Hawks78c3,205$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.137455.4%41 W · 33 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Hawks34c3,198$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.8615034.7%52 W · 98 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Nets28c2,984$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.7893148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hawks77c2,803$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Hawks78c2,645$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.8313959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Nets24c2,576$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.7127939.8%111 W · 168 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Nets1c2,566$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6654443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b5d…17fdbacked Hawks79c2,532$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.651450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed Nets22c2,514$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55313435.8%48 W · 86 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3043…2cbbbacked Hawks79c2,410$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.13966.7%26 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Nets26c2,372$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.234348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Hawks60c2,337$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Nets32c2,291$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.9816162.7%101 W · 60 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc59e…22b6backed Nets22c2,280$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.66323.8%15 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks60c2,254$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.441,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hawks69c2,233$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.882,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Nets23c2,174$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008863.6%56 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x797d…b890backed Nets23c2,174$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…d395backed Nets24c2,100$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Hawks67c2,049$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.0822036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…51f0backed Nets23c2,043$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47070%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Nets1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Nets23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46021440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hawks57c1,976$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.985,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.