NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31cc4f2e53c1c40ed01407307c306c96defa5e1445459bcf722f69785aa7c5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 58c | 37,073$21,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,477.42 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 15,824$6,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,673.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 42c | 9,640$4,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,048.9 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 4,000$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.76 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over | 42c | 3,972$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 2,453$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Over | 44c | 1,695$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.8 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 1,620$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.2 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…62c5backed Over | 42c | 1,548$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.28 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 41c | 1,412$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.41 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 53c | 1,388$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.36 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 41c | 1,366$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.06 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 41c | 853$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 42c | 722$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 58c | 415.96$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 42c | 331.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 43c | 280$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 58c | 148.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 74.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1877…78d7backed Under | 51c | 66.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 54c | 57.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 47c | 47.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…ba48backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 45c | 42.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 43c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…a765backed Under | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Nets won
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Nets won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Egor Demin: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nets vs. HawksHawks won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.