NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x493cecbb4816e82b721dd7a9aa51666c69d4d35a23299a2719e960693c15bea9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets | 53c | 55,601$29,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,468.61 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Hawks | 47c | 52,949$24,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,062.94 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks | 45c | 18,000$8,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,819.99 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks | 45c | 7,188$3,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,953.15 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks | 47c | 3,759$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 58c | 2,293$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…ae4cbacked Nets | 55c | 1,610$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Nets | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 54c | 958.96$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 45c | 777$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.35 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Nets | 53c | 753.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.2 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Nets | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks | 33c | 684.55$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.22 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets | 53c | 599.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Nets | 9c | 598.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Nets | 52c | 523.12$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.02 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Nets | 3c | 466.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nets | 54c | 433.54$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.24 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…e945backed Nets | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Nets | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Nets | 63c | 293.49$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…6763backed Nets | 55c | 273.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Hawks | 46c | 264$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Hawks | 47c | 255.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Hawks | 55c | 209.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 48c | 204.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Nets | 54c | 165$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks | 46c | 160.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Hawks | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Nets | 54c | 137.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Hawks | 46c | 132$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…f92cbacked Nets | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Nets | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 46c | 107.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Nets | 55c | 96.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Hawks | 48c | 94.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Nets | 49c | 92.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…1a2dbacked Nets | 56c | 90.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…374cbacked Nets | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed Hawks | 46c | 81.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Hawks | 53c | 74.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Nets | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…c029backed Nets | 54c | 72.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hawks | 44c | 67.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Hawks | 20c | 54.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Nets | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Nets | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Nets | 54c | 45.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Nets | 54c | 40.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 231 | 44.2%102 W · 129 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Hawks | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Nets | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Nets | 54c | 25.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 251 | 44.2%111 W · 140 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 50c | 23.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Hawks | 48c | 22.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Nets | 78c | 22.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -10.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Hawks | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…a27cbacked Nets | 54c | 20.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Nets won
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Nets won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Egor Demin: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nets vs. HawksHawks won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.