Fifa International · resolved market
Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257b919bc57dad6083914874f9f5b6e6588efbdc7c093b78ac247057fcf09a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 35c | 2,347$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.45 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 2,221$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.76 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 2,115$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.7 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,395$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.26 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed No | 67c | 745.71$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 33c | 299.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 35c | 288.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 29c | 261.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 28c | 238.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 143 | 23.8%34 W · 109 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Yes | 31c | 190.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 77c | 184.52$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…ff57backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 29c | 92.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…2b19backed Yes | 31c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…d560backed Yes | 31c | 65.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…2beabacked Yes | 32c | 62.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…f247backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 32c | 61.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 35c | 48.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…3244backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…6034backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b38…a80fbacked No | 72c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paraguay win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Korea Republic vs. Paraguay end in a draw?No won
- Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.