South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x258d6510bf1bcc4653e98f831c61161a41e9e4e8119b88006a026a530e86f595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 42c | 10,000$4,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,229.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 57c | 4,687$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.38 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 3,537$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.53 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 2,450$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.21 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Over | 57c | 2,258$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.58 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Over | 34c | 1,809$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.34 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 1,229$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 17c | 1,104$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 5c | 783.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Over | 2c | 655.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 63c | 425.71$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 12c | 388.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Over | 56c | 373.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.93 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 366.47$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 18c | 338.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 56c | 268$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 77c | 182.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 57c | 175.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 58c | 153.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…b1fbbacked Over | 57c | 134.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 42c | 133.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 120.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 32c | 115.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…7e82backed Under | 50c | 96.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 43c | 95.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 51c | 83.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 31c | 74.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…817bbacked Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Over | 57c | 59.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 52.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 78c | 51.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 35c | 43.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 59c | 29.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…e08abacked Over | 57c | 24.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: CA Unión O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Aldosivi (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Aldosivi (-2.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-1.5)CA Unión won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.