Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2597fc23a5b3a6be0b1bf6108951174adf0fcaa6dbc4b9930bfbff8a42747c85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc149…5adebacked Yes | 51c | 986.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 4c | 582.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 446.94$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.85 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 34c | 345.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 328.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 152.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 8c | 134.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 132.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 129.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 56c | 125.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 125.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 75c | 123.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 66c | 102.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 15c | 101.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 99.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 98.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 56c | 96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 93.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 92.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 81.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 80.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 71.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 69.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 66.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 62.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 56.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 54.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 41c | 54.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked Yes | 42c | 53.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 46.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…e7a0backed Yes | 37c | 45.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 30c | 41.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed No | 56c | 38.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 67c | 36.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 35.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 34.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…5fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 32.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 32.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 27.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked No | 75c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 22.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…d419backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 61c | 21.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 76c | 21.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 73c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 65c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.