Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x601bdf2dd265466b509e2360b23806cabaffa7d684285890c723fdfb1cab4784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,138$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.51 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 3c | 838.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…52e4backed Yes | 4c | 766.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 2c | 686.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 4c | 597.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 465.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 427.08$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 280$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 211.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 206.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 202.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 201.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 178.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 168$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 160.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 158.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 69c | 157.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 157.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 154.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 39c | 128.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 122.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 42c | 119.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 119.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked Yes | 30c | 116.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…1297backed Yes | 16c | 105.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 59c | 99.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 99.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…a731backed Yes | 41c | 98.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 91.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 91.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 30c | 84.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 18c | 84.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 83.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 83.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 14c | 77.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 16c | 73.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 43c | 63.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 61.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 61.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 61c | 57.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 69c | 56.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 56.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 54.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…d341backed No | 79c | 50.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…43e2backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 33c | 45.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…e7a0backed Yes | 32c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 32c | 43.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 30c | 41.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 35c | 37.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 36.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 33c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 32.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 66c | 32.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 37c | 31.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…07c5backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 38c | 29.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 63c | 29.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 28.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 40c | 26.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 65c | 22.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 66c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 74c | 18.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…25f9backed No | 69c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…3ca9backed No | 69c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.