Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc005df2af2c8057855d8e6ec436a1dc47de7cd7d296c161ccae3a87bad75c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 1c | 2,950$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed No | 2c | 751.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked No | 2c | 543.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 28c | 480.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.47 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 18c | 369.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 364.82$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 46c | 341.16$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.91 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 8c | 327.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 303.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.05 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 286.82$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 280$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 262.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 78c | 257.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 255.82$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.66 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 17c | 254.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.92 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 249$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 78c | 246.8$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 10c | 242$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 6c | 210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 206.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 205.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 75c | 199$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 75c | 185.44$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 36c | 181.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 155$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 52c | 148.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 136.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 68c | 133.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 126.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 59c | 121.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 119.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 119.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 116.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 111.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 40c | 103.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 91.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 19c | 89.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 87.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 19c | 86.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 80c | 81.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 80c | 80.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 76c | 77.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed Yes | 78c | 77.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 76.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 69c | 72.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed Yes | 21c | 70.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 77c | 69.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 69.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 41c | 67.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 65.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked Yes | 19c | 65.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 38c | 63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 20c | 62.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 77c | 59.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 57.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 41c | 57.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 54.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…1297backed Yes | 27c | 52.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 55c | 52.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 22c | 48.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 69c | 43.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…07c5backed No | 78c | 43.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 37.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 80c | 34.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 57c | 31.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 77c | 28.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 79c | 27.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 46c | 23.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 50c | 22.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 73c | 18.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 59c | 17.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 17.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 67c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.