Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25b1fc014887cb3145d8f06f375c0a4f6970290670fbe2742b4e6ea347ad57d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 34c | 3,040$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.38 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…376abacked No | 31c | 1,582$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 965.77$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Yes | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 68c | 644.3$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.62 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 67c | 584.99$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.81 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 34c | 539.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 32c | 539.15$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.71 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 66c | 410.82$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.9 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 70c | 347$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.44 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 33c | 344.64$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.91 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 30c | 288.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 32c | 270.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 66c | 254.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Yes | 67c | 222.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Yes | 70c | 201.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 58c | 190.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd841…64cabacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 63c | 131.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 70c | 125.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Yes | 67c | 123.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 66c | 100.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 66c | 97.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…8cf3backed Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 72c | 81.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 61c | 74.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed No | 35c | 68.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 66c | 39.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Yes | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Yes | 65c | 22.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Yes | 67c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.