Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f35b160464375238cc5832f34d05008129babaeb894de04b62ce94f182e122e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1783backed Under | 53c | 3,763$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 33c | 3,448$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.82 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 2,731$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 31c | 1,392$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.44 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 80c | 1,350$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 59c | 1,346$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 27c | 1,220$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.64 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 69c | 872.52$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.48 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 807.56$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 74c | 801.35$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.35 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 26c | 450.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 75c | 442.77$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 72c | 409.03$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.53 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 34c | 299.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Under | 59c | 250.43$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ba…2cf3backed Under | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 36c | 194.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 73c | 189.79$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 189.55$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 45c | 143.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 68c | 123.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 21c | 113.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Over | 25c | 97.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 27c | 90.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 24c | 69.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 57c | 67.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Under | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 30c | 49.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 66c | 45.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 53c | 45.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 60c | 43.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 68c | 36.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 69c | 31.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 76c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 46c | 27.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 60c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 52c | 22.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 55c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.