CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x265444f3a3e8e5e2e461450a0e8cf9ea1e67f2a7fd2c1044c630f2f4d70e7bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, Monte
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 9,503$4,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,981.43 | 364 | 53.8%196 W · 168 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Monte | 63c | 6,000$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,779.93 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Monte | 58c | 3,990$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.29 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Monte | 60c | 2,030$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.7 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…b3a2backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Monte | 42c | 1,150$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.99 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…f444backed Aurora Gaming | 35c | 851.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.08 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Monte | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Aurora Gaming | 37c | 713.51$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.51 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Monte | 42c | 640.24$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…afd7backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 632.43$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.43 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…2ce6backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 546.41$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.24 | 297 | 57.6%171 W · 126 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Monte | 42c | 538.82$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Monte | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Monte | 42c | 469.34$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming | 37c | 444.95$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.32 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 443.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.66 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…b8abbacked Monte | 63c | 439.93$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.15 | 206 | 43.7%90 W · 116 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…19c3backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 395.2$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Monte | 64c | 391$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.24 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Monte | 37c | 388.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Monte | 63c | 356.69$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.71 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…3df5backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…cad6backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 310.59$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.67 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Monte | 64c | 281.62$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 280.59$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.77 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041e…bc83backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…8d05backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 261.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.96 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Monte | 65c | 206.55$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Monte | 42c | 202.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…869ebacked Aurora Gaming | 55c | 176.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb38…b7c7backed Monte | 71c | 176.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…8862backed Aurora Gaming | 56c | 174.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Aurora Gaming | 29c | 169.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…1339backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…77c4backed Aurora Gaming | 35c | 155.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 188 | 46.3%87 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Monte | 64c | 155$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Monte | 53c | 152.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 143.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Monte | 51c | 139.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…f72bbacked Aurora Gaming | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 319 | 50.5%161 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…214ebacked Aurora Gaming | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Aurora Gaming | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 381 | 57.7%220 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…01e3backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 91.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 420 | 57.6%242 W · 178 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Monte | 56c | 87.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 85.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Monte | 42c | 85.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 81.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…e384backed Monte | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 331 | 53.5%177 W · 154 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Monte | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f7…60cfbacked Monte | 21c | 67.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 224 | 60.7%136 W · 88 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…67edbacked Aurora Gaming | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…b01fbacked Monte | 63c | 48.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…1903backed Monte | 65c | 46.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 57.9%95 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 44.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 32.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Aurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5)Monte won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.