Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x265670be7f28f551da87cdb897d10517835787e6dd7c520f28e3f22518e90256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,130$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,104$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,651$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 55c | 1,390$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.84 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 667.95$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 626.23$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 614.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 3c | 403.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 365.8$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 236.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 200.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…7518backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 193.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 141.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 65c | 131.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 94.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 91.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 67c | 89.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 88.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 57c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 19c | 71.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 70.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 60.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 51.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 22c | 51.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 46.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 57c | 42.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 58c | 32.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 31.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 69c | 31.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…dbb2backed No | 58c | 30.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 29.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…9050backed No | 62c | 29.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 28.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…594fbacked Yes | 40c | 26.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 52c | 25.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 58c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…8a8dbacked Yes | 45c | 23.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…2d63backed No | 63c | 22.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 22.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.