Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce3ee550f4bbec77dab985823721e6ad9ae7ea5b956536d96ede1e3381c3529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 7,035$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,446.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 76c | 1,815$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.62 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 42c | 1,432$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.42 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 51c | 1,244$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.63 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 1,196$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 1,179$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.51 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 1,001$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.85 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 938.6$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 791.48$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 664.42$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 650.49$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 594.14$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 579.04$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.81 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 555.28$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 498.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.8 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 19c | 434.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.14 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 415.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 43c | 411.22$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 399.5$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.19 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 369.12$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 31c | 353.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.03 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 347.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 336.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 316.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 69c | 315.66$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 32c | 299.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 50c | 289.51$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 270$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 50c | 251.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 56c | 250$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 248.42$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 231.88$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 229.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 229.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 208.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 199.62$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 199.46$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 74c | 199.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 179.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 177.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 171.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 26c | 165.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 160.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 68c | 151$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked Yes | 27c | 144.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 133.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 132.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 15c | 127.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 23c | 114.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 114.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 108.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 107.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 107.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 104.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 77c | 100.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 97.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 97.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 78c | 95.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 93.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 24c | 93.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 12c | 92.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 53c | 92.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 91.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 78c | 90.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 89.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…d032backed Yes | 12c | 86.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 82.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 30c | 81.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 19c | 81.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 81.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 14c | 78.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 76c | 75.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 55c | 74.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 74.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 74.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 68.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 73c | 67.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 66.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 26c | 65.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 25c | 63.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 25c | 62.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 62.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 72c | 62.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 78c | 57.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 25c | 53.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 51.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 70c | 51.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 27c | 51.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 27c | 50.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.