Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3e593bdb4dd88f0871e996dfb1edaf3679e227fb5773766c1e3913001b29ecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 25c | 3,250$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.03 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 3,128$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.28 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 23c | 2,305$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.63 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 79c | 1,900$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.78 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,598$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.62 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,550$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,369$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 4c | 1,271$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 954.4$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 23c | 789.74$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.7 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 67c | 754.37$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.62 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 6c | 668.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 12c | 567.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 535.7$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 459.03$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 9c | 450.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 428.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 335.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 322$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 299.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 64c | 297.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 16c | 286.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 8c | 246.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 29c | 236.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 226.19$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 35c | 212.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 7c | 210.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 177.87$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 170.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 161.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 160.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 26c | 152.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 127.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 123.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 17c | 109.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 15c | 109.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 73c | 109.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed No | 79c | 93.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 91.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 88.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 73c | 80.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 13c | 80.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 79.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 68.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 67.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 27c | 55.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 65c | 54.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 48.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 79c | 30.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 73c | 28.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 72c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.