Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b655da6d0fc8e81e3ba0de6d3fe7633bb2e2e4ac738209eff7f0eb79f665583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,970$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 68c | 2,861$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.27 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 25c | 1,659$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.13 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 1,217$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 1,192$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 41c | 1,116$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.57 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 1,096$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 1,089$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.89 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 1,013$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 938.6$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 852.36$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.87 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 847.24$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.45 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 45c | 820.92$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.47 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 28c | 750$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.77 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 673.8$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 664.78$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 32c | 659.31$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.53 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 630.7$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 517.84$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 66c | 395$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 348.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 54c | 345.73$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.93 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 34c | 286.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 276$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 260.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 248.72$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 241.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked Yes | 34c | 235.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 232.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 231.59$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 217.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 198$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 27c | 185.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 25c | 176.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 176.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 39c | 171.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 38c | 170.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 169.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 25c | 166.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 160.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 151.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 145.3$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 143.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 133.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 133.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 130$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 128.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 124.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 40c | 123.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 118.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 26c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 17c | 113.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 38c | 109.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 31c | 106.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 105.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 22c | 104.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 99.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 38c | 99.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 97.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 96.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 39c | 96.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 96.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 45c | 94.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 93.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 43c | 93.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed Yes | 11c | 91.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 90.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 86.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 58c | 85.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 85.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 67c | 84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 12c | 83.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 59c | 79.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 25c | 75.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 25c | 73.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 57c | 72.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 54c | 69.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed Yes | 19c | 69.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 40c | 69.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 68.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 65.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 44c | 61.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 64c | 59.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…c02dbacked Yes | 39c | 54.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 63c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.