TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,657 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes30c3,081$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.4531043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No75c2,492$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.4127841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes9c2,139$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.981,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes25c1,826$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.723429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…d8b2backed Yes4c1,671$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.826418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes20c1,199$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.81,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No73c1,103$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.051,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No71c1,006$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.43,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No73c938.6$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.925,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes34c906.71$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.338749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes26c904.52$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes21c792.05$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5890040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No64c653.87$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.6466543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes2c642.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed Yes29c598.86$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.311950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes18c586.64$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.524,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes20c575.22$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3338515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c563.9$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.224,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes7c469.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8820231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes29c447.51$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.581,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes8c410.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.881947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c5c…81a3backed Yes30c402.36$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.592454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes27c369.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.561637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No68c369$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.121,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes31c359.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0343559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe153…7659backed Yes26c329.68$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fc…4b70backed Yes26c324.39$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.26450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes26c318.69$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.349139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes31c318.12$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3813838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c300.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.282,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5770741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf0…3620backed Yes29c279.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a7…d16bbacked Yes27c260$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.471040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c255.87$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.731,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c247.64$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.392,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes25c237.26$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4919133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c233$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.076219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7087…b34abacked Yes25c232.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.981533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a9…9642backed Yes30c231.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.611338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes25c224.87$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8813732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No68c217.69$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.352,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c204.86$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.946,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a92…b344backed Yes28c198.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.292339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No72c193.21$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.952,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No71c186.63$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.572,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes13c185.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No74c183.92$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.052,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c165$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.174,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No62c159.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2227461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No71c158.35$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.211,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes31c157.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2516532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes22c146.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0923241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No71c143.08$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.382,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No69c142.12$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.482,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Yes25c138.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.456817.6%12 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+60.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c135.46$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.922,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c135.29$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No71c133.39$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.821,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No69c132.19$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.12,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No67c131.16$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.42,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd263…0cc3backed Yes40c129.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.342045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes15c129.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.761,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes10c128.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes20c124.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.558252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No75c121.93$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0157948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed Yes14c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.364334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes14c115.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.078,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes14c114$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c112.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c112.77$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.414,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aca…6977backed Yes40c111.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.386232.3%20 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No71c107.8$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.061,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No72c103.35$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.862,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes31c101.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1816543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes11c100.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2043238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76fd…ea44backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc388…ed37backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes20c99.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes28c99.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.877413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No67c94.52$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.342,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No76c88.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.062,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes17c83.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.344122%9 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes22c72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.181,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes30c70.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2918222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6a…3d1ebacked Yes29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.971637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No68c68.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.132,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes18c66.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes18c64.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9434628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes17c64.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9689951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No79c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4226256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d7…94b2backed Yes31c58.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes18c58.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.567159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes25c57.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.371,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked Yes31c57.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.878962.9%56 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa953…da6dbacked No64c56.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.252065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bdc…e076backed Yes29c55.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166141%25 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No78c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.12,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.745,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes33c50.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8335137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.