Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x267abdbc7118b570c30486225e320e5a8ef7490a762e837e32e73a318ee145d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 3,355$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 12c | 1,651$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 23c | 1,003$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.17 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 2c | 604.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 562.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…75e8backed Yes | 29c | 466.22$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 4c | 308.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 268.78$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 264.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 69c | 237.67$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 229.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed Yes | 19c | 199.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 185.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 154.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 76c | 124$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 12c | 119.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 106.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 14c | 103.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 102.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 100.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 97.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 69c | 93.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 19c | 80.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 77c | 71.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 71c | 60.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 24c | 44.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 39.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 72c | 17.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 75c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.