Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eb5b45f97a6a948a867ed2ab6cb95bd0e974471347bba5db5cfb34bb42f553b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 983.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 33c | 944.02$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.94 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…29d7backed Yes | 4c | 730.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 467.27$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…75e8backed Yes | 36c | 428.77$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 403.2$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 12c | 346.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 337.82$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 7c | 282.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 275.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 21c | 248$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 222.23$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 65c | 206$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 32c | 183.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 181.38$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 34c | 144.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 134.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 132.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 126.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 123.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 119.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 111.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 108.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 36c | 106.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 105.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 103.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 22c | 102.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 22c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 63c | 91.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 33c | 88.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 86.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 76.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 78c | 72.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 30c | 67.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 60.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 33c | 59.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 57.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 55.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 55.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 53.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 50.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 32c | 47.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 34c | 44.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 33c | 44.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 44.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 38.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 37.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 31c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…736cbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 34.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 44c | 33.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…2e9ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 63c | 28.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 27.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 25.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed No | 67c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 66c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 64c | 17.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 67c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.