Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefb267bab516e5039ba2e1763aa2f3d3788cdfb1900418077068f52008149d1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 3c | 10,522$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 8c | 3,057$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,798.35 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 13c | 1,589$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.5 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 1,577$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 4c | 1,569$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.55 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 1,569$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 1c | 1,111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 8c | 842.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.23 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 9c | 702.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 4c | 630.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.51 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…7f22backed No | 18c | 576.24$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 9c | 518.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.7 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 17c | 517.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.31 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 508.12$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.54 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 59c | 475.32$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.51 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 6c | 455.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.94 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 375.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.85 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 46c | 361.91$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 328.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.81 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 4c | 299.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.74 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 282.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 244.81$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 5c | 222.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 32c | 218.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.67 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 11c | 193.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.35 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 66c | 172.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 172.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 77c | 171.34$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 168.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 25c | 161.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 19c | 159.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed Yes | 41c | 158.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 36c | 153.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…d97bbacked Yes | 13c | 113.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 104.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked No | 69c | 95.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 74c | 90.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 90.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 75c | 76.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 73c | 72.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 77c | 66.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 24c | 65.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 63.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 54.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…86bebacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 39.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 37.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 76c | 35.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 34.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…2341backed Yes | 65c | 28.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 28.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 28.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 25.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 67c | 25.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 76c | 21.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 20.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.