Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcef7be5026a8b679d43a91b2e9b4df6b0aaddfa4d5559b44d6781124e7fbbf1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,628$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 1,502$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 3c | 1,035$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 782.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 31c | 726.79$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 8c | 693.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 45c | 688.4$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.39 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 646.03$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 627.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…4076backed Yes | 6c | 618.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 60c | 595.28$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.59 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 12c | 541.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 484$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 15c | 470.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 18c | 435.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 23c | 389.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 19c | 383.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 356.55$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 334.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 328.26$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 36c | 324.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.12 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 38c | 296.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 291.79$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 287.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 15c | 282.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 8c | 279.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 8c | 278.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 271.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 56c | 252.9$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 20c | 252.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 250.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 6c | 246.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 207.3$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 29c | 184.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.06 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 180.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.03 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 26c | 170.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 166.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 156.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 75c | 155.64$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 72c | 149.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 73c | 145.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 71c | 140.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 15c | 135.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed Yes | 75c | 127.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 45c | 123.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 40c | 116.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 45c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 46c | 89.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 89.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 48c | 87.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 12c | 87.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 30c | 86.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 30c | 85.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 50c | 82.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 80.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 78.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 74c | 77.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 69c | 66.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 16c | 63.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…bbbcbacked Yes | 67c | 63.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 63.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 71c | 62.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 34c | 61.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…e686backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 20c | 57.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 55.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 53.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 49c | 50.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…86bebacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 33c | 42.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 41.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 64c | 36.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 28c | 35.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…13d2backed Yes | 72c | 33.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 67c | 29.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 51c | 28.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 41c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked No | 51c | 25.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…cfa8backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…20d1backed No | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 73c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.