TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$220,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Under43c103,744$44,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,162.732759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Over54c25,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,5004443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over55c18,562$10,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,226.513,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over57c13,126$7,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,475.0478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under43c11,623$5,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,570.1510553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over57c11,540$6,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,532.638068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Over22c8,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.98944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over42c6,185$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.672,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Over57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Over56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8001050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9916647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.9633244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under43c4,139$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.265052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x538a…0823backed Under44c3,934$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,203.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over57c3,800$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16615847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e92…c03fbacked Over57c3,509$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over50c2,999$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.513953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over57c2,764$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.4317251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over57c2,632$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over27c2,576$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.492520%5 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87c0…6660backed Over1c2,483$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under43c2,325$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.245145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over57c2,112$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.081,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba87…bc76backed Over1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over55c1,900$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b2a…4a00backed Over57c1,754$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Over20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over56c1,142$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.151136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under46c1,105$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.477062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over54c1,100$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5948248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over35c1,076$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.997722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Over57c1,008$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5711650%8 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over56c1,000$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5658251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over24c991.25$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.96142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Over57c900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Over56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed Over57c875.44$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over56c845.48$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.518336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over55c842.36$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.42142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over57c800$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45631145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over29c782.41$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c7…3fa6backed Over58c689.66$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-56%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over13c631.63$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.061533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over57c630.4$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4318746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under78c617.14$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7748658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under44c602$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.4211056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over58c600$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3485052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over57c504.8$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2872050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Over57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2851154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over44c454$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.762133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Over39c420.09$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.613342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3c…0de9backed Over55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002045%9 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+166.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over23c382.61$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882157.1%12 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+75.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over57c382.42$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.984658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under44c349$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.4430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Over58c344.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over23c330$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.913142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over49c326$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.832536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Over57c317.54$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17115453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17111860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Over57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1711957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ce…b596backed Over57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c289.49$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Under45c284.07$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.24977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+90.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc6…0e75backed Over36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over47c265$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.74254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34ad…040abacked Over53c262.15$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over26c259.74$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.510552.4%55 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed5…869abacked Over57c232.98$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x455c…1c25backed Over57c220.3$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Over26c207.79$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under42c202.48$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.037759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Under43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Over56c199.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over31c194.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over55c193.91$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.656659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd829…d60ebacked Over48c192.31$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3140%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under66c181.98$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3216542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ef…cb71backed Over56c178.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+65.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1551…fdc0backed Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Over58c173.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca3…590fbacked Over56c167.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.071656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over52c164.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under44c160$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.413852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over29c155.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7211955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.510360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over26c148.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1610552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over15c135.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9939558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over31c133.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3812832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce70…0be2backed Over26c129.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Over57c129.23$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6610945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Over40c126.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.347230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over26c125.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.598946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Over57c120$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.42673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.