Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde48f938bcacc44da7f16027ed4b1d5ca536cf43e97ccef0cd9d72ff140e24e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87c0…6660backed Over | 0c | 7,258$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 73c | 6,800$4,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 2,517$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 73c | 1,851$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.82 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 28c | 1,455$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.71 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 7c | 1,250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 1,153$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 34c | 808.72$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.38 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 66c | 741.88$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.95 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 34c | 594.85$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 34c | 517.68$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 3c | 419.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed Under | 77c | 324.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -56%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 74c | 216.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 35c | 140.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 35c | 131.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 64c | 94.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Over | 18c | 79.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over | 25c | 72.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 26c | 69.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 35c | 64.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 33c | 37.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a4…3fd8backed Under | 65c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5this page
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.