Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83dfda375b46c636c09f24d519a6c311eefb4cf2e67d0cde7c73e805224dc86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 4,614$2,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,446.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 41c | 1,038$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.23 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 56c | 884.2$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.05 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Yes | 7c | 746.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.47 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.27per pick | 10cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 690.27$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 48c | 680$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.6 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Yes | 37c | 674.9$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.44 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 44c | 476.62$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 51c | 427.82$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.19 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 56c | 417.49$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 45c | 389.02$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.06 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 56c | 358.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Yes | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 57c | 271.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 45c | 264$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 29c | 255.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…1fdbbacked No | 6c | 249.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 60c | 235$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 55c | 234.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 46c | 226.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 41c | 204$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…6303backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…891bbacked Yes | 35c | 190$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 59c | 186.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 45c | 171.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 56c | 137.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 54c | 109.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…5c29backed Yes | 55c | 92.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 45c | 90.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 49c | 90.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…f3f1backed Yes | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…7e29backed Yes | 32c | 87.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +178.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3490backed Yes | 50c | 80.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 70.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed No | 67c | 60.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Yes | 21c | 54.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…4ed9backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No | 54c | 31.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…3508backed Yes | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 39c | 26.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bf…7758backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0b…a307backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.