TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
ThunderTalk Gamingof LGD Gaming, ThunderTalk Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,097 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f87…f04ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming1c4,650$47 inWon+$4,603.522265.3%145 W · 77 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed LGD Gaming28c285.71$80 inLost-$809436.2%34 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed ThunderTalk Gaming72c285.71$206 inWon+$806460.9%39 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed ThunderTalk Gaming45c285.71$129 inWon+$157.141,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming44c285.71$126 inWon+$16067553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed LGD Gaming28c200$56 inLost-$5657957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e2d…8a1dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming5c200$10 inWon+$1903050%15 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+122%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ThunderTalk Gaming72c176.14$127 inWon+$49.322,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked ThunderTalk Gaming70c83.51$59 inWon+$24.932555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed ThunderTalk Gaming47c68.87$32 inWon+$36.537948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ThunderTalk Gaming56c68.86$39 inWon+$30.32,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed LGD Gaming30c60$18 inLost-$1874637.9%283 W · 463 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked LGD Gaming53c50$27 inLost-$26.561256.2%344 W · 268 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b5…a423backed ThunderTalk Gaming50c50$25 inWon+$253560%21 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+94.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.