Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e5b9b855889f194e7bebd5a5b0a471a20fd21588cfdcce819c5726f9f3596df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Over | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,199.99 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 42c | 9,602$4,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,003.96 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Over | 58c | 4,299$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.7 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Over | 59c | 3,400$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.96 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Under | 42c | 2,062$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.62 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Under | 43c | 1,650$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.14 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 42c | 1,431$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.5 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 60c | 1,285$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.13 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 40c | 1,195$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.72 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Under | 42c | 1,073$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.76 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818c…2911backed Under | 42c | 900.98$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 68c | 599.81$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.94 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…3be7backed Under | 42c | 557.14$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Under | 32c | 301.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Under | 40c | 297.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524f…2642backed Under | 42c | 267.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Over | 59c | 234.84$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 444 | 51.8%230 W · 214 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Under | 41c | 175.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 176 | 50%88 W · 88 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Under | 42c | 125.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Under | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Under | 39c | 111.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0731…b73fbacked Under | 42c | 106.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 793 | 45.4%360 W · 433 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…0502backed Under | 42c | 80.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Over | 57c | 80.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…4197backed Under | 39c | 78.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…6b00backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 50c | 46.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…3b05backed Over | 56c | 44.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…bd31backed Over | 68c | 40.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 59c | 37.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 134 | 73.9%99 W · 35 L | +13.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 62c | 36.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 59c | 22.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +24.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?this page
- Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5)ThunderTalk Gaming won
- Game Handicap: TT (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: TT (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 WinnerThunderTalk Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerThunderTalk Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.