Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf135b0f4e40d59d949f717f85d1aed36c9ec65a4426af7ad62710ffac8f2626c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 69c | 2,257$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.1 | 222 | 65.3%145 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 62c | 584.3$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.27 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Under | 72c | 400$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 316 | 46.5%147 W · 169 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 25c | 386.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 402 | 31.3%126 W · 276 L | -28.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 26c | 363.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…073ebacked Over | 70c | 355$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Over | 38c | 317.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.42 | 299 | 44.1%132 W · 167 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Under | 35c | 299.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…8481backed Over | 37c | 267.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 31c | 254$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 2,311 | 39.4%910 W · 1,401 L | -83.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…9b44backed Over | 38c | 249.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…ce5cbacked Over | 61c | 230.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 488 | 44.3%216 W · 272 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 197.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Under | 45c | 197.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 28c | 163.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 24c | 162$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 1,924 | 35.9%691 W · 1,233 L | -97.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 32c | 158.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 1,464 | 43.4%636 W · 828 L | -32.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7829…cfd3backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 287 | 34.1%98 W · 189 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…f718backed Under | 45c | 148$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 195 | 53.3%104 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Under | 23c | 145.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 573 | 49.4%283 W · 290 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 30c | 140.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 464 | 52.4%243 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Under | 32c | 131.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 312 | 44.6%139 W · 173 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 45c | 123$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 406 | 41.9%170 W · 236 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 64c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 227 | 48%109 W · 118 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 63c | 119.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 21c | 107.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 35c | 80.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,971 | 30.5%601 W · 1,370 L | -170.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…bf7bbacked Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Over | 21c | 76.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 322 | 53.1%171 W · 151 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Over | 36c | 74.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Under | 66c | 73.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 76 | 63.2%48 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 501 | 45.7%229 W · 272 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 401 | 43.9%176 W · 225 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffbf…1184backed Under | 57c | 43.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 287 | 59.9%172 W · 115 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Over | 33c | 43.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 40.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,357 | 31.2%423 W · 934 L | -129.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…0121backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 660 | 58.8%388 W · 272 L | -36.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5)ThunderTalk Gaming won
- Game Handicap: TT (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: TT (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 WinnerThunderTalk Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerThunderTalk Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.