Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e767eee098891d4b6bf506801b31e8057fb37ed99d461d78b3f24f67f6be4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Under | 47c | 41,152$19,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,969.56 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Over | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Over | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Over | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,499.99 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Over | 53c | 7,500$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 45c | 5,883$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,235.65 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 45c | 4,123$1,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.76 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Over | 53c | 3,800$2,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 53c | 2,953$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 53c | 1,948$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.19 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 45c | 539.96$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.98 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Under | 47c | 201.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Under | 45c | 175.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…7358backed Over | 54c | 160.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 148 | 58.1%86 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Under | 46c | 121.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 176 | 50%88 W · 88 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…2ad5backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 56c | 88.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 320 | 53.8%172 W · 148 L | +21.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Under | 46c | 84.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 53c | 47.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…3b05backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed Over | 55c | 18.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5)ThunderTalk Gaming won
- Game Handicap: TT (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: TT (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 WinnerThunderTalk Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerThunderTalk Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.