TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,912 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8725…eb10backed Under50c4,457$2,224 inLost-$2,223.892,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Over50c4,126$2,063 inWon+$2,06316356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Over52c1,105$580 inWon+$525.022,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb146…4002backed Under48c1,018$491 inLost-$49120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over51c523.97$265 inWon+$258.951,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over51c354.28$182 inWon+$172.2628652.8%151 W · 135 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Under47c259.99$122 inLost-$122.21,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Under47c144.68$68 inLost-$683953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed Under47c136.13$64 inLost-$63.987549.3%37 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Under50c120$60 inLost-$6026042.3%110 W · 150 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a1…4f61backed Over51c120$61 inWon+$58.84744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Under51c97.71$50 inLost-$49.8362649.8%312 W · 314 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under53c35.88$19 inLost-$19.111,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Over51c29.98$15 inWon+$14.691,57648.4%763 W · 813 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ca…731bbacked Under52c29.97$16 inLost-$15.593850%19 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under49c26.2$13 inLost-$12.9436047.5%171 W · 189 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bce…db46backed Over48c24.69$12 inWon+$12.884360.5%26 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.