NHL · resolved market
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26b335e7eb250a737879d89e39f06274c2031aebcc690210673b5d2d6f4c0ad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 2,833$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.69 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 22c | 1,485$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.44 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 22c | 1,018$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.2 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…90b2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 779.53$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 21c | 700$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 80c | 659.83$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 444$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 399$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 330.44$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 75c | 295$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 25c | 277.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 250.66$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 25c | 234.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 25c | 234.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 13c | 210$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 183.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 25c | 155.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 153.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…48b6backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 152.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…a3bebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 145.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 134.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 127.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 116$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cec…6406backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 80.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 25c | 79.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 22c | 72.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…2d68backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 59.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c59fbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 49.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 48.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe109…d36ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 44.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 41.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…ad93backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +10.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf79…796ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.