Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26cbbbabf497b77003fcb62681dad2519fe1ae5e8f91e8b474f4b3423a87bb32

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $258,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $105,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,464 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x018f…027dbacked Yes	0c	18,002$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	1c	11,246$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.94	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,991$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	6,647$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb24f…3432backed Yes	0c	6,126$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b6…34edbacked Yes	2c	5,764$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.16	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	5,706$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.03	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	4,784$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	1c	3,285$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	2,593$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.09	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,411$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.03	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd354…4d78backed Yes	1c	1,990$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	59	18.6%11 W · 48 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	2c	716.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	2c	471.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event