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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$632,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$383,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $632,881 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe95…2803backed Yes0c124,999$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes0c30,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes5c21,464$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.6211816.1%19 W · 99 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes1c16,634$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.357929.7%172 W · 407 L+2.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes0c10,241$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2462913.2%83 W · 546 L+3.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-52.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes2c9,473$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.7229113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes0c8,880$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.221348.2%11 W · 123 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c8,298$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.491,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes0c8,253$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.981196.7%8 W · 111 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes3c5,710$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5965921.5%142 W · 517 L+2.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes1c5,105$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.983644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes2c4,849$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.171656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c4,104$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.745775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c4,081$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.42,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes2c4,048$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6378111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c4,018$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.231,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes3c3,660$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.971478.8%13 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes2c3,647$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.742116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes1c3,258$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.715748.2%47 W · 527 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes2c2,840$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.12875.7%5 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa876…9b4abacked Yes1c2,793$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.543023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,780$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes2c2,716$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ad…d485backed Yes1c2,552$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes3c2,494$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3627516.7%46 W · 229 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes3c2,429$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2530110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c2,363$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.361,04111%115 W · 926 L+4.5wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes4c2,005$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4143410.6%46 W · 388 L-0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402466.1%15 W · 231 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes3c1,644$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.971288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes3c1,604$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8950319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes6c1,602$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8918431%57 W · 127 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed Yes2c1,571$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes3c1,498$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5935924.2%87 W · 272 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes2c1,462$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.713014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9645…e2d2backed Yes1c1,360$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8815…438dbacked Yes1c1,357$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.575619.6%11 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes3c1,355$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2650913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c1,294$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.893281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c1,282$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0291110.2%93 W · 818 L-3.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed Yes2c1,267$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.272433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd354…4d78backed Yes2c1,252$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.265918.6%11 W · 48 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes2c1,233$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.379511.6%11 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes3c1,151$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.122777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c1,107$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.841,0968.2%90 W · 1,006 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc489…e4b6backed Yes2c1,099$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa5…e581backed Yes2c1,062$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.366816.2%11 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b83…be04backed Yes2c994.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.253813.2%5 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c991.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.721,2198.7%106 W · 1,113 L+32.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…cecdbacked Yes2c959.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.761442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes2c926.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.895628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes2c881.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6834221.9%75 W · 267 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…5078backed Yes3c833.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.85180%0 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c796.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.277304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes4c795.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1559320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes4c782.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.41216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes4c723.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3489818.8%169 W · 729 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes2c722.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.241428.5%12 W · 130 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f796backed Yes2c696.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.739412.8%12 W · 82 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes4c688.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1238828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes3c670.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0642312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb24f…3432backed Yes3c613.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c611.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.263986.8%27 W · 371 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes3c599.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813414.2%19 W · 115 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b6…34edbacked Yes6c599.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes3c597.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1116417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x024b…ab5dbacked Yes3c585.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes5c584.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8190317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ec…0708backed Yes3c555.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.065320.8%11 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes2c550.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5426619.5%52 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2686…1e41backed Yes2c496.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-58.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x814e…3959backed Yes4c405.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes4c385.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x890b…2737backed Yes5c375$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.634712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes3c357.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7535425.7%91 W · 263 L-1.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes4c334.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0429610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2607…af43backed Yes4c243.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes5c229.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.