Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x362f6beabc19c2264905010c1520f605b834cfc017d96c5ff51d837744485e72

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $256,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,679 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	0c	21,998$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf6…e161backed Yes	0c	15,833$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	2c	7,098$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.47	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	5,791$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,124$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.96	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	4,044$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.49	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	3c	3,960$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.09	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	2,903$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.27	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	2,836$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.02	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf536…2006backed Yes	1c	2,654$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.04	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes	5c	2,603$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.78	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,518$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.25	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,145$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.11	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	2c	2,086$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.11	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	1,948$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.76	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,769$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,543$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.14	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	4c	1,488$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.35	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,435$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.45	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	1,358$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…5078backed Yes	4c	1,346$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.81	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	4c	1,177$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.58	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	2c	1,129$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	4c	966.53$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.35	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb015…42c3backed Yes	3c	800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	14.1%10 W · 61 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	705.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.58	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	607.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	3c	565.68$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	4c	542.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	5c	466.22$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.53	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	438.62$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.68	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	4c	400$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	4c	299.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes	6c	190.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes	6c	185.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event