Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Tobyl FK win on 2026-07-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2714442e18c4d836abcdef5c06d224b23ca77564b5f6ca617c6a2c320b5987f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 23c | 2,627$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.73 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 2,317$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.97 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 2,240$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.47 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 51c | 1,652$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.75 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 1,469$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.97 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf02…f87bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,297$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 50c | 1,078$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.39 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 48c | 1,041$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.96 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 49c | 958.11$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.47 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 50c | 922.63$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.76 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…f760backed No | 46c | 748.98$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.45 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 52c | 747.81$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.65 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 49c | 500.9$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.57 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 52c | 481.59$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked No | 51c | 444.96$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 62c | 387.1$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 35c | 299.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 51c | 230.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 49c | 223.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 47c | 217.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 213.49$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8413…5af6backed No | 49c | 207.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 79c | 200.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…e11ebacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 52c | 184$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 49c | 181.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 54c | 179.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 9c | 169$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 13c | 125.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 51c | 102.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a3…78b4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 54c | 72.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 54c | 65.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 22c | 56.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4b…abd6backed Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147d…55c7backed No | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…9c0bbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d0…904ebacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…67c1backed Yes | 28c | 40.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…189fbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6e97backed No | 55c | 26.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…4f55backed Yes | 59c | 25.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 55c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 53c | 21.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Yes | 60c | 20.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b131backed Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…64fdbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…bd31backed No | 80c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 72c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tobyl FK win on 2026-07-23?this page
- Will FK Panevėžys vs. Tobyl FK end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FK Panevėžys win on 2026-07-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.