Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x273eb8b6028e346e170fbda6879173d99e52d2400e7a8c711d1e312720413386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 922.93$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 476.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 258$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 49c | 227.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 226.07$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 184.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 12c | 165.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…f05bbacked Yes | 9c | 150.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 144$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 122.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 118.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 99.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 97.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 56c | 90.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 86.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 86.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 85.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 80.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 24c | 79.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 76.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 40c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 57.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 55.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 21c | 51.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 45c | 51.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 68c | 50.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 50.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 44c | 43.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 43.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 43.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 43.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 41.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 40.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 38c | 34.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 34.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 25.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 64c | 17.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or below on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 38°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.