Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a5d75081f07b558f04d50f1a19f149a5857935fce9a9a36c5fce93ddc667d21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08b1…f05bbacked Yes | 18c | 571.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 19c | 453$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 319.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 258$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 7c | 243.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 224$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 220.51$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 89.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 67c | 82.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 82.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 21c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed Yes | 29c | 78.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 38.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 70c | 34.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or below on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 38°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.