Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2757a0d1f5d75cc8febb2afe61c4eba9546b34963287cb3c98b9295ec8938f66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 19c | 10,104$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.29 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 10c | 5,640$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.04 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 61c | 2,273$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.82 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,415$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.9 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 79c | 1,161$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.52 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…3ad1backed No | 43c | 881$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed No | 18c | 678.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…c9b6backed No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 72c | 550$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.62 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 26c | 436$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.79 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 25c | 432.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 410.26$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.94 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked No | 26c | 386.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 69c | 367$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.69 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…aa98backed Yes | 64c | 313.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 22c | 299.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 68c | 270.56$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 269.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.84 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 14c | 235.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.53 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…8525backed Yes | 27c | 232$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed No | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 55c | 219$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed No | 25c | 193.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 50c | 172.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 26c | 164$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 60c | 162.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 69c | 158.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 16c | 144.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed No | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 65c | 114$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…b729backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 69c | 105.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 26c | 99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked No | 18c | 96.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed No | 26c | 89.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 29c | 85.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Yes | 64c | 80.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 76c | 77.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 58c | 69.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 39c | 62.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 58c | 55.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 61c | 55.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 64c | 55.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 28c | 52.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfc…7f6bbacked No | 26c | 51.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…e8e3backed Yes | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…b368backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 72c | 37.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…f6e2backed Yes | 79c | 24.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…f81abacked Yes | 45c | 23.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032b…603dbacked Yes | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…98fcbacked No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4754…c1fdbacked Yes | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.