Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cff692dc9cb161e531f92bc29982790200ad92074bcaf7de16c524e65343a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 8c | 13,381$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.69 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked No | 66c | 4,819$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.49 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 32c | 2,467$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.74 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 5c | 1,756$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 1,670$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.59 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,051$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 29c | 900$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 30c | 798.73$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.62 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 34c | 737$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.58 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…26efbacked No | 70c | 603$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 71c | 600$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 67c | 487.08$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 458.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 31c | 387$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 31c | 352.54$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 31c | 347.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 31c | 344.03$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 30c | 328.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 328.15$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 31c | 299.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 34c | 295.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Yes | 31c | 293.32$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 30c | 266.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 30c | 266.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Yes | 30c | 233.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 31c | 163.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked No | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Yes | 30c | 133.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Yes | 31c | 123.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Yes | 9c | 122.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 34c | 112$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 33c | 104$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 35c | 96.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 35c | 96.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 35c | 96.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed No | 65c | 82.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 31c | 77.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 31c | 75.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Yes | 35c | 70.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 30c | 64.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Yes | 30c | 63.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked Yes | 21c | 61.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 30c | 53.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 31c | 52.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 49.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…4e5fbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.9wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 30c | 36.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 30c | 36.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 32c | 34.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 34c | 29.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 69c | 24.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…065dbacked No | 72c | 22.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 72c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.